A Conceptual Review of Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis in the Context of Economic Uncertainty
Keywords:
CVP analysis, economic uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy logic, adaptive decision-makingAbstract
This study addresses the increasing challenge of economic uncertainty in managerial decision-making, particularly within the framework of Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP) analysis. Traditional CVP models are deterministic, relying on stable assumptions about price, cost, and volume, which are often unrealistic in volatile economic conditions. This research aims to develop a conceptual framework for an adaptive CVP model that better accommodates uncertainty and risk. A qualitative literature-based approach was employed, focusing on secondary sources including academic books, national and international journals, theses, and research documents. Literature was selected based on thematic relevance, methodological variety, and balance between global and Indonesian perspectives. The study used content analysis to identify conceptual gaps in CVP application and synthesize various approaches—deterministic, probabilistic, and adaptive. The findings were used to construct a conceptual three-layer model representing the evolution of CVP thinking. The proposed model consists of three layers: (1) the foundational deterministic CVP structure, (2) the influence of external economic uncertainty, and (3) adaptive tools such as sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, scenario-based evaluation, and fuzzy logic. The model offers a more realistic analytical tool for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), particularly in unstable market environments. The study contributes a conceptual CVP framework that bridges the gap between traditional analysis and modern uncertainty-oriented approaches. It is recommended for empirical testing using simulation tools like Excel or EasyFit to assess its practical applicability in Indonesian MSME sectors.Downloads
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