ANALYSIS OF CRYPTOCURRENCY PRICE PREDICTIONS AND VOLATILITY AMID GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

Authors

  • Ilyasin Aditya Rahman Independent Researcher Author
  • Sri Suharsih UPN Veteran Yogyakarta Author
  • Hariestya Zaki Akmal Aulia UPN Veteran Yogyakarta Author

Keywords:

Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Volatility

Abstract

Digital currency, especially cryptocurrencies, is experiencing rapid growth and is noted for its high price volatility, driven by factors such as global geopolitical instability. Major events like the Russia-Ukraine war, recent conflicts between Israel and Iran, and the United States military operation targeting Venezuela's president on January 3, 2026, have all stirred sharp price fluctuations. This demonstrates that analysing how geopolitical situations influence cryptocurrency volatility is essential. This research aims to provide timely analysis and price predictions, serving as a vital resource for investors seeking to make informed decisions amid current global tensions approaching the brink of World War III. This study only uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as samples for analysis because Bitcoin has the largest valuation at present, while Ethereum ranks second with the largest market capitalization. Bitcoin is also widely used worldwide, and its price dynamics remain somewhat controversial (Abid et al., 2023). Therefore, it is very important to understand the volatility of these two coins and make short-term predictions, considering the recent escalation in geopolitical conditions. This research uses secondary data for the period from February 24, 2022, which marks the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, until January 18, 2026, on a daily basis with quantitative descriptive analysis. The data were obtained from investing.com and coinmarketcap.com. The benefits of this study include understanding future trends related to Bitcoin and Ethereum prices in the short term. This makes investors have a reference in making investment decisions, and furthermore, this research also provides an important contribution to understanding the volatility dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. The results of this study show that GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) is the best model.

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Published

2026-02-15

Conference Proceedings Volume

Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

ANALYSIS OF CRYPTOCURRENCY PRICE PREDICTIONS AND VOLATILITY AMID GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. (2026). Proceeding of SINERGY, 1(1), 656-666. https://conference.unita.ac.id/index.php/proceeding-of-sinergy/article/view/692